By The Americano.com
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Al Cardenas, the new head of the American Conservative Union, said these voters are "a force to be reckoned with." He adds that the GOP's grasp of the growth and influence of U.S. Hispanic communities isn't as strong as some in the party would like it to be. "It's a work in progress."
To make this story simple, let us just accept two premises:
One: The Hispanic population has grown so dramatically in several states that Republican strategists see their vote as crucial to their party’s efforts to retake the Senate.
Two: Even if the population growth the 2010 census does not measure citizenship nor voter registration, the increase of Hispanics across the nation, and particularly in these states, is of such an enormous magnitude, that GOP strategists should begin to devise a strategy that will attract these voters to the Republican Party.
And they need to do it now, not wait until next year.
According to The Hill, the 2010 census shows that the Hispanic population in states such as Montana, Nebraska and Missouri grew by a huge percentage. In Nebraska the growth was 58 percent; in Nebraska, 77 percent and in Missouri it was 70 percent. All this in the last 10 years.
It is important to note that these are three of the states that Republican strategists believe are the best takeaway possibilities in the November 2012 elections. Winning these three states, providing the GOP does not lose any of the 10 seats they are defending would give the party an excellent chance at taking over control of the Senate.
Currently the Senate has a Democratic majority composed of 51 Democrats and two Independents who caucus with them to give the Democratic Party a 53-47 majority in the upper chamber.
The Hill points out that it isn’t lost on GOP strategists that the reelection campaigns for those states’ Democratic senators — Jon Tester, in Montana; Ben Nelson, in Nebraska, and Claire McCaskill, in Missouri — are expected to be close. Nor do they need reminding that a Republican majority in the Senate is at least three seats away.
“If this becomes an election all about the economy, there’s a major opening for a Republican candidate to appeal to Latino voters,” said Bob Moore, a Republican pollster. “But if it becomes about immigration, then it could be problematic for the Republican nominee.”
Each of Montana, Nebraska and Missouri’s Hispanic populations remains in the single digits. But with increasingly competitive Senate races, even small blocs of voters can make a difference. Hispanics favored Democrats by a 3-to-2 margin last election, in a year when a record 19 million Hispanic voters were eligible voters, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
Al Cardenas, the new head of the American Conservative Union, said these voters are “a force to be reckoned with.” He adds that the GOP’s grasp of the growth and influence of U.S. Hispanic communities isn’t as strong as some in the party would like it to be. “It’s a work in progress.”
Republicans need to develop their entreaties to this voting bloc.
“The key to it is not so much the substance of views, but the quality and compassion of your delivery,” said Cardenas.
Danny Diaz, a Republican strategist, echoed Cardenas’s concern, and said any talk about immigration leading into 2012 must be “respectful.”
“To the degree that it’s not, it’s less than helpful,” said Diaz, who advised Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) on his successful run last election cycle. “It’s largely understood, but the question is whether it makes its way into practice.”
The Hill recalled that GOP immigration hardliners, such as Rep. Steve King (Iowa) and former Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.), have indicated they want to keep immigration a national issue, especially as it pertains to the upcoming presidential nominating contest.
If Republicans are not careful with how they address the immigration issue, they could face an election day problem even in small state’s such as Nebraska, Montana and Missouri. It makes no difference if the number of Hispanics in these states is still relatively small, and if those eligible to vote are even a smaller percentage.
In a close election, even small numbers of a small group, particularly one growing rapidly in numbers, could make a huge difference. It could well decide whether Republicans re-gain control of the Senate or whether they fall short.
The numbers are there. The issue is alive. Now it is up to Republican strategists to develop a way to make it work in their favor and not give Democrats an easy vote.
Think for example of what would happen if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) decides again to bring up the DREAM Act, which would make a path to legality for younger illegal immigrants. That might become a litmus test in Republican presidential primary contests, which in turn might influence the vote in Senate races in November.
The Hill brings back the results of last November’s election as a reminder of what may lie ahead for Republican senate hopefuls. Reid took 69 percent of the Hispanic vote in Nevada’s Senate race last year, according to exit polls, which helped clinch his 5-point win over Republican candidate Sharron Angle. In Colorado, support from Hispanic voters helped Sen. Michael Bennet (D) defeat his 2010 Republican challenger in a race decided by fewer than 30,000 votes.
“In states that are purple, the vote of a few thousand Hispanics may well make the difference,” Cardenas said.
It used to be that the Hispanic vote was only crucial in states like Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California. Now it is also important in states like Ohio, Virginia and North Dakota. These are states that also recorded spikes in Latino population growth since the last census.
“You’ve got probably another 10 or 12 states where, in a very close election, [it] could be a significant tilting point,” Cardenas said.
“Latino voters are paying attention,” said Patricia Guadalupe, a spokeswoman for the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), a non-partisan group that trains candidates and tracks voter participation.
There are now 26 Hispanic members of Congress, eight of whom are Republicans, according to NALEO. Party strategists point out that Republican Hispanic candidates won last year’s races for governor in New Mexico and Nevada, along with races for Florida’s open Senate seat and four House seats.
Regardless, reliable Hispanic support for Democrats shows the GOP needs a “change in approach,” said Javier Ortiz, a Washington-based Republican strategist.
“You need to say, ‘Come and be a part of our campaign,’” Ortiz said, adding that methods of “Latino outreach” tend to separate Hispanics from the rest of American society. “There should be no distinction in the message that you deploy in the Hispanic community: The message is, ‘You are American.’”
Source: The Americano.com
