It's a sure bet economy wins after Super Bowl: professor

By Monique Beech, Standard Staff

For those who play the stock market, this weekend's Super Bowl should be a win-win situation.

The old theory, or "Super Bowl Indicator," goes like this: Who wins the biggest football game on the planet is a predictor of a strong or soft stock market.

The idea is that if a team from the original National Football League wins Sunday's big game, the stock market should go up.

If a team from the former American Football League wins, the markets should a take hit and go down.

The leagues merged in 1970 to form the NFL.

This year is special. Both the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers are original NFL teams. It's only happened nine times before in the Super Bowl's 44-year history. All nine times, the S&P 500 went up an average 17% in those years, according to a study by George Kester, a finance professor at Washington and Lee University.

Meanwhile, if an original NFL team reigns supreme over an old AFL team, the market only increases by 10%.

That excites Brock University business professor Ernest Biktimirov.

"Now, both teams come from the original National Football League. In this case for sure, markets will go up according to the predictor," said Biktimirov, who created a similar predictor based on the outcome of the Stanley Cup playoffs and how it affects the Canadian stock market.

The Super Bowl/stock market correlation is strong. The Super Bowl winner has correctly forecasted whether the market will go up or down 80% of the time.

Trouble is, no one knows why, Biktimirov said.

"There is no economical theory behind this," he said. "It's simply some spurious speculation. It just happens to happen. The reason it gets so much attention is Super Bowl is such a big event."

An event that happens at the same time every year, he added.

Then again, Biktimirov said stock markets are also predicted on the length of women's skirts. If short skirts are in fashion, the market goes up. If hemlines go down, so do fortunes.

Would Biktimirov put his money on the stock market or the game?

The stock market, said Biktimirov, who is neither a Packers cheesehead nor a Steelers fan.

"The predictor has been remarkably successful. That's why it got so much attention."

Economists began noticing the correlation of Super Bowl winners and the financial health of the United States as far back as the 1980s.